In the first third of the twenty-first century, the emergence of a new multipolar world order based on the rivalry and changing relations between the United States of America, the People’s Republic of China, the European Union and the Russian Federation began and accelerated.
As detailed in a brand-new book on the transforming world order edited by Zoltán Vörös and István Tarróssy, Russia has emerged as the representative of neo-Eurasianism, with the aim of regaining imperial status. The outlines of a multipolar and interdependent international order had already emerged a decade ago. The significance of the Eurasian heartland grew in the emerging new international system. The establishment of a multipolar and multilateral international system based on the Eurasianist approach stands at the centre of the foreign policy strategy and geopolitical trend hallmarked by the name of President Putin. Despite the structural weakness of its economy, due to its accession to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (1998), the foundation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (2001), and participation in other international integrations, as well as through the foundation of the Eurasian Economic Union (2014), Russia has become a structureestablishing great power in the system of international relations while remaining only peripheral from the perspective of the world economy in terms of its economic development and weight. Be that as it may, its ambitions are influenced and limited by several factors.
On the one hand, Russia is limited by the superpower status and position of the United States of America; on the other hand, it is constrained by China’s growing role as a global superpower in the Eurasian region. Beijing has not only extended and increased its influence in the Eurasian region through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, but since 2013 the Chinese leadership has been increasingly consistent and assertive in implementing the Belt and Road Initiative. The Silk Road Economic Belt component of the Belt and Road Initiative, which geopolitically, geographically and economically also covers Central and Eastern Europe, includes land and maritime routes, complemented by a tested route around the Arctic Circle.
The New Silk Road project has established a direct link between China and Europe, involving sixty countries from Southeast Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East. This historically ambitious project has represented and mobilised 75% of the world’s known energy reserves, 70% of its population and 55% of global GDP. The establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank network for regional investment is also an important element and instrument of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The BRICS countries – originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa – have also become important players in the emerging multipolar and interdependent international system. In 2024, the alliance enlarged to include Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran. In this altered international context, the European Union needs to define its room for manoeuvre and represent its interests.
Conflict-induced transformations have led to an escalation of tensions between the emerging powers (China and Russia) and the United States, still the dominant power today, and the European Union, which is part of its alliance system.
These transformations and developments have led to a revival of the question of the inevitability of armed confrontation between the competing powers and renewed debate among scholars.
In the case of Russia, the debate is about how to avoid the Kindleberger Trap, and in the case of China, it is about evading Thucydides’s Trap. In his international bestseller, now in its fifth edition, Graham Allison asks the burning question of the day: Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap, or is the world destined for war? Will the conflict between the rising powers and the dominant power that wishes to maintain its position, influence and role in economics, politics, military power and ideology inevitably lead to armed confrontation? In light of the Russian–Ukrainian War, a sound scientific answer to this question is very difficult to give.
Nevertheless, historical experience shows that competing powers and centres of power have always sought – and continue to seek – new spheres of influence and allies. This is why it is crucial for experts and those interested in the evolution of these processes to follow the events unfolding before our eyes from an external perspective and point of view, and why research on Eurasia is becoming increasingly relevant and important. The articles and book reviews published in this third issue of Eurázsia Szemle Volume IV will help to disseminate knowledge about Eurasia, promote academic discourse and influence further research and policy directions.
In today’s emerging and evolving multipolar world order and multilateral international system, there is a greater need than ever for such analytical examination of the trends, challenges and opportunities faced by Eurasia and the international system of the twenty-first century.
Professor István Szilágyi, PhD
Head of the Advisory Board
The complete edition of Eurázsia Szemle Volume IV Issue 3 can be downloaded here: